Poly will win Big West

The men’s basketball team and I got off to a volatile start last year.

Maybe I had it coming after I made several frank assertions in my first column about the team: “The only thing the 2004-05 team had in common with the top 25 were the numbers two and five – 22 losses and five wins.”

It was the brutal truth. I received one facetious facebook message and at least a few death stares from players soon after.

In all fairness, let’s face the facts. The last few seasons haven’t exactly been kosher for the Mustangs. The squad has finished 10-19, 5-22 and 11-16 in its last three seasons – not quite praise-worthy.

As the season officially begins this weekend, this column will make more bold statements about the expectations of the program: Cal Poly will win the Big West Conference and qualify for the NCAA Tournament via the conference’s automatic bid.

Some of you might suspect collusion – surely a player threatened to slam dunk me if I wrote another negative column, right? Or maybe my mental wellness took a trip south for the winter after a brutal round of midterms.

Whatever the case might be, there’s no way anybody could suggest Cal Poly will win the Big West – not after glancing at its track record, right?

I’ve been predicting the Mustangs’ ascension to the top of the Big West since March 10, 2006. That’s when Cal Poly played 36 minutes of high-caliber basketball against a University of the Pacific team that nearly knocked off nationally-ranked Boston College in the NCAA Tournament. Unfortunately for the Mustangs, college games last 40 minutes and the incumbent Big West champs pulled away for a 68-57 win.

The Mustangs only lost two players from last year’s squad. One of those players only logged 50 minutes in eight games. The other was Gabe Stephenson, a crafty post player who lacked explosiveness, but had a knack for finding his way to the free-throw line.

Stephenson’s departure hurts, because he was a veteran and team leader. However, the tandem of sophomore Coby Leavitt and junior Dreshawn Vance gives the Mustangs an athletic, shot-blocking presence at the low post.

If Saturday’s 82-55 exhibition drubbing of Division II Notre Dame de Namur of Belmont is any indication, the Mustangs will start Big West Freshman of the Year Trae Clark at the point, All-Big West second-team pick Dawin Whiten at shooting guard, All-Big West first-teamer Derek Stockalper at small forward, Tyler McGinn at power forward and Titus Shelton at center.

If Shelton stays healthy, the Mustangs have one of the most talented starting lineups in the conference with a pair of capable backups in Vance and Leavitt.

Shelton missed much of last season with a stress fracture in his foot, but he was healthy at the Big West tourney, where he showed Pacific and UC Santa Barbara a glimpse of his potential. Then a freshman, Shelton averaged 16 points and 7.5 rebounds in those two games. At times he looked unstoppable and he will certainly be a key to the Mustangs’ success this year.

The “X” factor could be Vance, who sat out last season after transferring from Portland. The 6-foot-8-inch forward/center had a pair of emphatic slam dunks Saturday.

This isn’t some home-cooked fantasy, folks. The Mustangs are for real, and they’re going to the NCAA Tournament, byahh!

Pacific might have topped the coachs’ preseason poll and Long Beach State might sit at the crest of the media poll, and Cal Poly might be picked sixth and fourth in those respective polls, but the polls are wrong.

In the words of Vince Vaughn: “Erroneous! Erroneous on both accounts!”