Lauren RabainoIt was supposed to clear the picture and set the stage for the most anticipated presidential election in decades.
Instead, questions remain on both sides as the race for the democratic nomination intensifies in the wake of last week’s Super Tuesday elections.
The political science department hosted a discussion panel Monday headed by Cal Poly professors Chris Den Hartog and Mike Latner that focused on the results of California’s primary, storylines that emerged from Super Tuesday and the role superdelegates will play in the Democratic nomination.
Presidential hopefuls Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) and Barack Obama (D-Ill.) are engaged in a head-to-head battle for delegates that could extend all the way to the Democratic convention in Denver from Aug. 25 to 28.
Of the 32 students who attended the event, 20 were women. The professors were pleased by the turnout and mentioned how much they enjoyed the heightened level of involvement young people were displaying this time around.
“I’m actually interested in this election,” political science junior Taylor Baumann said. “I was interested to hear their predictions and the implications for the future.”
The panel agreed that Sen. John McCain (R-Az.) will almost certainly win his party’s nomination but that some interesting dynamics were still at play with former Gov. Mike Huckabee.
Huckabee’s continued participation was described as a combination of wanting the vice presidential nominee and a desire to keep the conservative core of the Republican Party motivated.
“It has the potential to undermine McCain if he keeps doing well,” Latner said.
Political science junior Peter Swiniarski wanted to find out more about the specifics of how delegates are awarded. The discussion on delegates focused on the competitive race between Clinton and Obama.
“The story of the Democratic race has been one of fluidity,” Latner said.
A record turnout of 8.5 million in California represented nearly half of registered voters in the state.
A breakdown of the demographics showed why Clinton was able to win 206 of 370 delegates with 52 percent of the vote.
Because of proportionality rules, a nominee has to win by a 2-1 vote or else the delegates will be split evenly. In districts with an odd number of delegates, the person who captured the plurality of votes receives the majority.
Obama was ahead by 22 points among voters between the ages of 18 and 29.
And despite closing margins between white and black voters, Clinton was able to maintain her margin of victory, thanks to strong support from Hispanic women.
Especially in districts represented by Latinas in the House of Representatives. Those four districts averaged 71 percent votes for Clinton and gave her a 12-4 delegate advantage.
“I wasn’t aware how close the delegate count actually was,” journalism junior Amanda Benevento said.
With most news outlets calling the delegate count close to even and not anticipated to change drastically, the nomination is seen as lasting all the way to the convention.
This means an important role for the superdelegates, made up of former politicians and party insiders. Most see the 796 unelected superdelegates as the possible deciding factor in the nomination.
“Until recently, the opinion was that we wouldn’t get that far, that someone would emerge,” Den Hartog said. “Now, nobody knows the answer, with the possibility that the outcome could alienate the voters and hurt Democrats in the general election.”
Clinton is generally seen as having the advantage among superdelegates, leaving open the possibility Obama could have a slight lead entering the convention and still miss out as the nominee.
As their role becomes clearer, some superdelegates are saying they do not want the responsibility and that it should be up to the American public.
The next stage of the election process is the so-called “Potomac Primaries,” as Virginia, Maryland and the District of Columbia all go to the polls today.