Climate futurism: four scenarios

Climate foresight is a valuable strategy, both for helping direct our efforts toward coping with climate change and for helping us fully grasp the seriousness of the crisis. Although we won’t know the future until it arrives, climate futurism takes an educated guess at what the planet and society might look like decades from now, and helps us anticipate the end results of our choices today.

Forum for the Future and Hewlitt Packard Labs have developed a series of detailed scenarios depicting what they think our lives on Earth could be like in the year 2030 (depending on the actions we take between now and then). The scenarios focus on the social, political, economic and psychological aspects of climate change.

Here’s how James Goodman, head of Forum for the Future, describes the project:

“The two decades to come will be defined as much by climate change as the 1930s were by depression or the 1950s by the Cold War. It will be everywhere in decisions and discussions, whether we are on the way to solving it – or not. We should, in short, plan for a climate-changed world, and not just climate change.”

The Climate Futures project developed five scenarios for 2030 that aim “to provoke fresh thinking over the likely consequences of global warming itself – and of the varying strategies we might choose to tackle it.”

Here are summaries of four such scenarios:

Efficiency First

This is a world in which market mechanisms have been redesigned to value carbon at exactly the right level to unleash a storm of low-carbon, high-tech innovation. As it became clear that climate change posed a major threat to their own people, nations brokered a new agreement; one based firmly on incentives and markets – not caps and restrictions. Together, they shared a resolute determination not to sacrifice economic growth for environmental gain, but to maintain the world’s drive for development through growth. However, a drive for growth at all costs widened the gap between rich and poor, and prompted growing social conflict. Ecosystems everywhere need close management or risk collapse.

Redefining Progress

This is a “wellbeing economy” that values meaningful work, low-impact lifestyles, more time with family and friends, better health outcomes, creative educational experiences and a stronger sense of community. People are rethinking what it means to lead a fulfilling life. People are attracted to simplicity and focus much more on quality of life than economic prosperity. Climate change is well understood and viewed as one part of unsustainable living. High carbon prices have resulted in businesses rethinking their models and selling services rather than products. Countries prioritize economic and social resilience over the idea of economic growth.

Environmental War Economy

This is a world that woke up late to climate change. It’s one where governments fought shy of a global agreement until 2017, by which time the accumulated evidence of catastrophic shifts in weather patterns meant they saw no choice but to take draconian action. Out went the soft talk of incentives and persuasion, in came hard policy and tough regulation. As time went on, the state took a stronger and stronger role, rationalizing whole industry sectors to reduce their climate change impacts. And so in 2030, greenhouse gas emissions are at last beginning to decline dramatically – but the cost to individual liberty – and that of business, too – has been severe. According to this view, we currently have a window of opportunity – perhaps for just a few more years – to use markets to combat climate change. Miss that window and we’ll be forced into more immediate, harsh measures.

Protectionist World

Globalization has gone into full retreat and countries focus on security and access to resources at any cost. It’s a world where governments have turned their back on burdensome treaty obligations, and poured resources into protecting themselves from the consequences of climate change running rampant. Climate mitigation is cast aside in favor of a flurry of selfish adaptation measures, producing a tragedy of the commons of gigantic proportions.

The world is divided into protectionist blocs, and countries wage violent wars over scarce resources like water. Communities are divided and cyber-terrorists take advantage of the flux, paralyzing communications networks and targeting collapsed states.

This is a world that nobody wants and many fear. Even greater then, is the need to understand what might lead us down this road – and do whatever possible to avoid it. The challenge of mitigating and adapting to climate change may be looking tougher almost by the day – but the process of thinking about future directions of policy, business, technology and individual attitudes leaves a lot of room for optimism. Major change is needed, yes, but even small steps taken now can open up previously unimagined paths of hope.

Ben Eckold is a Mustang Daily columnist and the president of the Empower Poly Coalition.